The states (and not-so-swinging) states that have voted in a series of rounds of polls released on Wednesday have applauded this reality.
How bad are these numbers for Trump? To put it a subtle point: really bad.
Now, let’s see what these numbers mean for Trump’s chances of being 270 in November.
* If Trump loses Texas (and he wins anywhere in 2016), he does Loses Bidenke, 286 out of 200 votes cast
* If Trump loses to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and wins anywhere in 2016), he Loses 278 to 260 from Biden.
* If Trump loses Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania (and he won anywhere in 2016), he Loses Biden 279 to 259A.
* If Trump loses to Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin (and he wins anywhere in 2016), he Loses 276 to 262 from Biden.
* If Trump loses to Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin (and he wins anywhere in 2016), he Loses 271 to 267 from Biden.
The main point here is that we are still 152 days away from the November election, which is locked in a scene on the map of this election. (And, yes, I counted))
Instead, they note that Biden has a completely different path to the 2,270 electoral votes so far, while Trump’s numbers are dwindling. And of course, the polls released on Wednesday didn’t even address the potential trouble spots for Trump in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia – all of which he won in 2016.
As valuable as it is, Trump’s best / most likely way to run for a second term is to lose one or both of Michigan and Pennsylvania, and retain each of the states he won in 2016, if he loses both Michigan and Pennsylvania. One way to achieve this is to win 270 to 268 electoral votes over Biden. If he only loses to Pennsylvania, he could win by 286 electoral votes. Only Michigan lost, and Trump has 290 electoral votes and a second term.
“The country is as polarized as it was two months ago, and the course of the contest is largely unchanged.
“While the daily improvements give cable television networks something to talk about, today’s big story will be replaced by a new one tomorrow, and the next day another but the fundamentals of the nation remain unchanged.”
That’s right. To date, there are more ways than any other point of Biden’s campaign to get two electoral votes. And Trump’s numbers are low.
Could it change? Of course! In the summer of 2016, looking at the election map, it seemed that Hillary Clinton would go down to victory against Trump. Heck, saw the whole way to the fall.
The election is not today. Trump will run an interest-funded – and perhaps apprehensive – campaign that seeks to identify Biden as contagious on every issue, from the issue to the race. And as the last few months have reminded us all, events can and do intervene to change what we think we know about the November election.
This is all true. In none of these have Trump made the changes that he is looking at today on an increasingly difficult electoral map, suggesting that big changes are coming anytime soon.